Thursday, November 4

monday morning quarterback

Twice I've felt it in my gut. Twice. It's not like I think about this all the time, but I wish I would listen to myself more when I do.

In 1995, 7 days after the release of Toy Story, Pixar went public, and I distinctly thought "If I had a couple thousand dollars I would invest in that right now." The fact is that I might have been able to lay my hands on that kind of money from a credit card or a relative if I had been really serious about it. I just didn't want to risk it. Had I taken the risk, and bought shares at $30 or so (it opened at 40 but plunged under institutional investing almost immediately and so $30 seems realistically what I would have paid) then at today's prices my $2000 would be worth $5400, not a bad return at all.

It's nothing compared to what shoulda woulda coulda the second time. The only other time I felt that gut feeling to buy a stock was about a year and a half ago, right before Apple introduced the itunes music store. Apple stock was at about $13.50, the company actually had a market cap that was lower than their cash on hand, and it was an open secret that apple was getting ready to start selling music online. If I had taken my pixar money (it would have been about $4500 at that point) and just bought apple stock with it, I'd be sitting on $18,000 right now.

Bugger me for a little courage, eh?

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